The Schroders Economics team has studied the way markets behave during periods in which the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightens monetary policy, and how they perform following periods of “panic”. Will this time be any different?
India’s fourth quarter GDP growth slowed slightly but still beat estimates, at 7.3% year on year. While the number confirms India’s place as the fastest growing major economy, we have some reservations; the quality of both growth and data are in question.
Payrolls rose less than expected last month, but January’s US employment report also showed a surprise drop in unemployment and a pick-up in wages.
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney has offered a cautiously optimistic message.
In a surprise move the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has taken rates into negative territory with a 20 basis point cut to -0.1% for the rate it charges to financial institutions on their current accounts with the central bank.
In the first Schroders Live event of 2016, Bloomberg’s European Markets Editor Mannus Cranny quizzed Keith Wade and Johanna Kyrklund on the most pressing issues facing markets right now. These included matters such as China, the oil price, rate hikes and currency wars.
Chinese GDP came in below market expectations, but in line with our forecast, at 6.8% year on year in the final quarter of 2015. This brings 2015 growth to 6.9%, in line with the official target of “around 7% growth”, but highlights the challenges faced by the authorities in propping up growth.
In the first economic infographic of the year our economists review the events which dominated the economic landscape in 2015 and look ahead at what to expect in 2016.
China's equity and currency markets have exhibited a great deal of weakness since the start of 2016, and just as in August, global markets have suffered. But should global investors be quite so concerned about China?
After five years of declines, the commodity bear market is long in the tooth and we certainly expect bullish surprises, when they occur, to trigger strong recovery rallies in 2016 and beyond.
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